Tag Archive for pacing

Audience Forecasting and Campaign Pacing

Audience Forecasting and Campaign Pacing“In online advertising, how can I predict/forecast the traffic (number of requests) for a day ?
For a given day, I would like to get the estimated number of eligible impressions a campaign will have, in order to allocate my budget and implement a traffic based pacing algorithm.”
This question was asked on Quora, below is my answer.

The estimated number of eligible impressions, or audience forecasting or “avails” as they say in the industry, can be derived in several ways. I will illustrate two of the methods.

The long, but easy method

The easiest way to estimate your avails would be to just take a whole day’s worth of data and determine how many of your target users are in there. The problem with this method is that it can take a whole day. If you have a day to spare, this is a good way to go.

The short, but difficult method

For this to work you’ll need the total traffic available for some previous day, or week. You’ll want that data broken down by hour or maybe 15 minute interval. With more traffic, your breakdown can be smaller. For the sake of this example let’s look at an hourly breakdown and a single day’s worth of data. Read more

Proportional control pacing

Proportional control pacingNeal, JZ and I worked on this Proportional Control Pacing document last year with the hope that companies in the online ad space might benefit, and the “ecosystem” as a whole would be improved.  Originally, we were calling it Toilet Ball Pacing, but a more professional title won out. Internally we still refer to the algorithm by the original name.

So pop on over to Rubicon’s blog and read up on using a proportional control algorithm for better campaign pacing.

UPDATE!  A link to this post graced the pages of AdExchanger.com!  Scroll to the bottom, you’ll see it in the list.  I know, it’s not a headline, but it’s still kinda cool.